TOKYO — If reputation have been the deciding issue, there can be a transparent front-runner to turn out to be the following prime minister of Japan.
Polls have discovered that the general public favors Taro Kono, the cupboard minister overseeing Japan’s coronavirus vaccine rollout, by a minimum of two to at least one within the race to guide the governing Liberal Democratic Celebration — which, in impact, is the race to turn out to be prime minister. His Twitter following of two.4 million dwarfs these of his three rivals mixed.
However within the again rooms the place Japanese political selections are made, Mr. Kono, 58, is just not almost as nicely preferred. His fame because the Liberal Democrats’ most outspoken nonconformist and his left-leaning views on social points put him out of step with the get together’s conservative elders.
These folks may have appreciable sway on Wednesday because the Liberal Democrats select a successor to Yoshihide Suga, the unpopular present prime minister and get together chief, who said this month that he would step aside. Whoever takes his place will lead the get together right into a normal election that should be held by the tip of November.
In previous get together management elections, unity has made the winner a foregone conclusion. However this time, the political horse buying and selling has typically appeared at odds with fashionable sentiment, at the same time as the general public has expressed dissatisfaction with the get together’s management on the pandemic and the financial system. That disconnect partly displays complacency among the many Liberal Democrats, who’ve been in energy for all however just a few years since 1955 and appear assured that they are going to win the overall election regardless of who they select.
“Right now, their thinking is that they can’t lose to the opposition,” mentioned Masato Kamikubo, a professor of political science at Ritsumeikan College in Kyoto.
Because the minister in control of vaccines, he has typically responded personally to Twitter customers’ questions. Fumie Sakamoto, an an infection management supervisor at St. Luke’s Worldwide Hospital in Tokyo, mentioned she believed his private contact might have helped ease public fears concerning the vaccines.
“He’s always been willing to communicate about vaccination in a positive and easy-to-understand manner,” Ms. Sakamoto mentioned. After a slow start within the first half of the 12 months, greater than half of the inhabitants in Japan is now fully vaccinated, placing it forward of the US and plenty of different international locations across the Pacific Rim.
However different points have put Mr. Kono on the fallacious facet of his get together’s energy brokers.
He has repeatedly voiced his opposition to nuclear energy, a sacred cow for the Liberal Democrats. He now helps same-sex marriage and a proposal to alter a law requiring married couples to share a surname for authorized functions — positions which are fashionable with the general public however opposed by the get together’s influential proper wing.
Mr. Abe, who resigned last year because of ill health, has backed Sanae Takaichi, 60, a hard-line conservative, for the management. Ms. Takaichi, who can be Japan’s first feminine prime minister, has sturdy backing from the proper wing of the get together, however her ballot numbers are low. One other lady within the management race, Seiko Noda, 61, has little help from both the general public or the get together.
Many Liberal Democratic members of Parliament take into account Fumio Kishida, 64, a reasonable with tepid help within the polls, to be the most secure selection, based on media tallies of lawmakers.
Mr. Kono, whose father and grandfather have been each Liberal Democratic lawmakers, has lengthy made it clear that he needs to be prime minister. However he didn’t observe a standard path to energy. He left a spot at one in all Japan’s most prestigious personal universities, Keio, to check at Georgetown in Washington as an alternative.
Mr. Kono’s polished English and in depth journey expertise as international minister would make him a welcome selection for prime minister amongst Japan’s allies, political analysts mentioned. “For Washington, he would be the most comfortable person,” mentioned Shihoko Goto, a senior affiliate for Northeast Asia on the Wilson Heart in Washington.
On China, Mr. Kono doesn’t invoke the form of hawkish rhetoric that Ms. Takaichi and Mr. Kishida have been utilizing in the course of the marketing campaign, however he can be prone to preserve the get together’s insurance policies on army cooperation with the US, Australia and India.
Given his work on diplomatic and army points — Mr. Kono additionally served as Mr. Abe’s protection minister — he’s “probably the best-prepared person for the prime ministership in that sense,” mentioned Narushige Michishita, director of the Safety and Worldwide Research Program on the Nationwide Graduate Institute for Coverage Research in Tokyo.
However some say his confidence has led to conceitedness and even impetuosity. Final 12 months, as protection minister, he determined with little session to cancel a plan to purchase an American missile defense system, angering Japanese army leaders who heard concerning the resolution after the very fact.
“Maybe he’s too American,” mentioned Kunihiko Miyake, a former diplomat who has been an adviser to Mr. Suga. “He’s very direct, honest, sometimes blunt,” Mr. Miyake added. “And sometimes so self-righteous that nobody can catch up or nobody feels willing to help.”
Mr. Kono, who declined to be interviewed for this text, has a fame for being short-tempered with Japanese bureaucrats. He not too long ago crusaded towards the fax machines which are nonetheless utilized in authorities workplaces, making waves by taking up one of many shibboleths of the paperwork.
In an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan’s largest each day newspaper, Mr. Kono acknowledged that he may want to talk extra rigorously. “However, I do not intend to mince words when it comes to pointing out the fallacies of bureaucratic thinking that is not attuned to reality,” he mentioned.
On Twitter, he has additionally turn out to be quite infamous because the Japanese politician most certainly to dam his critics — a lot in order that he spawned a hashtag, #IwasblockedbyKonoTaro, in Japanese. When requested concerning the follow in an interview with TBS, a broadcaster, he defended it.
“I don’t feel the need to have a conversation with people I don’t know who slander me,” he mentioned.
Masahiko Abe, a professor of English and American literature on the College of Tokyo, mentioned he was blocked by Mr. Kono after suggesting that the minister didn’t perceive the federal government’s coverage on college entrance exams.
“I don’t mind that he’s sometimes aggressive and even arrogant from time to time,” Mr. Abe mentioned. However, he added, “If he says anything wrong, I think we have the right to correct him.”
Individuals who have labored with Mr. Kono mentioned he believed that coverage debates have been extra productive in the event that they have been rigorous. “The reason why he understands the discussion is because he is demanding,” mentioned Mika Ohbayashi, a director on the Renewable Power Institute, a analysis and advocacy group, who served on a local weather change advisory panel with Mr. Kono.
As a candidate for the management, Mr. Kono has calibrated a few of his previous positions. Regardless of his opposition to nuclear energy, he mentioned he supported the restart of Japan’s nuclear vegetation — the overwhelming majority of which have been idled because the triple meltdown in Fukushima 10 years in the past — as a part of a plan to cut back greenhouse gasoline emissions.
“He is looking at his liabilities and he is trying to figure out how he can cement support within the party,” mentioned Mireya Solís, co-director of the Heart for East Asia Coverage Research on the Brookings Establishment.
Hikari Hida contributed reporting.