Sports

NFL Week 12 betting notes: Dolphins, Tua impress at residence


Happy Thanksgiving to all. Thanksgiving brings quite a lot of tendencies and traditions with the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys taking part in on this present day each season. Recently, the tendencies have been in opposition to the 2 hosts. Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its previous 11 Thanksgiving video games, whereas the Lions are 3-11 ATS and 0-14 outright the previous 14 occasions they’ve been underdogs on Thanksgiving.

The Cowboys hope to proceed a pattern of massive favorites overlaying on Thanksgiving. Since 1995, groups favored by not less than 7 factors are 22-5 ATS on Turkey Day.

The Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1 ATS) are off to the worst 10-game ATS begin by a reigning Super Bowl champion since 1997. With Matthew Stafford formally dominated out, the Rams are the primary reigning champions to be not less than 14-point underdogs. Two prior reigning champions closed as 13.5-point underdogs. Both gained outright.

While the Rams are uncommon underdogs, a few different groups are in new favourite roles. The Miami Dolphins are of their largest favourite position since 2003, additionally in opposition to the Houston Texans. Miami, which misplaced again in 2003, hopes to keep away from a loss on Sunday. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are of their largest favourite position since 2018 as they host the Chicago Bears.

Season notes

  • Home groups: 5-8-1 ATS (76-82-6 ATS this season)

  • Favorites: 7-6-1 ATS (68-87-6 ATS this season)

  • Favorites: haven’t had week over .500 this season

  • Overs: 8-6 (94-68-2 this season)

  • Best workforce ATS: Tennessee (8-2); eight straight covers

  • Worst workforce ATS: Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1)

  • Best over workforce: Cleveland (7-2-1)

Notable title odds strikes

  • Dallas: 14-1 to 10-1

  • Cincinnati: 30-1 to 25-1

  • Tennessee: 35-1 to 28-1

  • Minnesota: 11-1 to 16-1

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 35-1 to 45-1

  • New York Giants: 60-1 to 80-1

  • New York Jets: 60-1 to 100-1

  • Green Bay: 80-1 to 125-1


  • Dan Campbell is 17-10 ATS as Detroit head coach, together with 13-4 ATS as an underdog of not less than 4 factors and 7-0 ATS as a house underdog of not less than 4 factors (4-3 SU).

  • All 5 Buffalo highway video games have gone underneath the overall this season.

  • Detroit has gained and coated three straight video games.

  • Since 2004, Detroit is 3-11 ATS and 0-14 outright as an underdog on Thanksgiving. Detroit’s final upset win on Thanksgiving occurred in 2003 in opposition to Green Bay (+7).

  • Detroit is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of not less than 7.5 factors on Thanksgiving within the Super Bowl period.

  • Since 1995, groups favored by not less than seven factors on Thanksgiving are 22-5 ATS (18-4 ATS previous 20 seasons; 6-1 ATS previous seven situations).


  • The final time a workforce with a .700 win proportion was not less than an 8-point underdog in Week 10 or later was in 2007 when New England was a ten.5-point favourite over Pittsburgh (9-3). Over the previous 25 seasons, these underdogs are 0-6-1 ATS (2-11-1 ATS previous 40 seasons).

  • Dallas has coated 4 straight residence video games (4-1 ATS this season) and is 3-0 ATS as a house favourite this season.

  • Dallas is 9-2 ATS in opposition to New York since 2017, with three straight covers.

  • Since 2020, New York is 7-0 ATS on short-rest video games, all with Daniel Jones as starter.

  • New York is 5-1 outright and ATS as an underdog this season. The solely time New York was an underdog of not less than a landing, it gained outright in opposition to Green Bay in Week 5 (+9).

  • Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its previous 11 Thanksgiving video games. Dallas has misplaced outright as a favourite on Thanksgiving in every of the previous three seasons. The Cowboys have been favored by not less than 6.5 factors in two of the three losses.

  • Since 1995, groups favored by not less than seven factors on Thanksgiving are 22-5 ATS (18-4 ATS previous 20 seasons; 6-1 ATS previous seven situations). However, final season, Dallas misplaced outright as a 7-point favourite on Thanksgiving in opposition to Las Vegas.

  • Division sport unders are 32-18-1 this season.


  • Since 2016, New England is 14-1 ATS on short-rest video games.

  • Since 1990, residence favorites are 27-16 ATS on Thanksgiving (15-5 ATS excluding Dallas).

  • New England has coated three straight video games and three straight highway video games.

  • Minnesota (4-5-1 ATS) and Kansas City (4-6 ATS) are the third and fourth groups previously 20 seasons to start out 8-2 or higher outright however have dropping information ATS (2018 Los Angeles Rams, 2012 Baltimore). 2018 Los Angeles gained its convention, whereas 2012 Baltimore gained the championship.

  • Prime-time unders are 19-13-1 this season (107-79-4 previous 4 seasons).


  • New York has not been a 6-point favourite since Week 10 of 2018 (misplaced 41-10 as 7-point favorites vs Buffalo). The final time the Jets have been a 4-point favourite was in Week 14 of 2019 (gained 22-21 as five-point favorites vs Miami).

  • New York is 3-0 ATS after a loss this season.

  • New York is 4-0 ATS in opposition to groups with dropping information.

  • Five straight Chicago video games have gone over the overall. Five straight New York video games have gone underneath the overall.

  • New York has been an underdog in each residence sport this season. The solely different workforce to be a house underdog in each sport is Houston.

  • Chicago is 7-15 ATS as an underdog for the reason that begin of final season (Justin Fields: 6-12 ATS).


  • Cleveland is 7-2-1 to the over this season, the very best over mark within the league. Tampa Bay video games are 8-2 to the underneath (4-0 on highway).

  • Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in its previous eight video games.

  • Tom Brady is 12-8 ATS in his profession off a bye (1-1 ATS with Tampa Bay).


  • Tennessee has coated eight straight video games, the longest lively streak within the NFL. One extra cowl would tie the second-longest streak previously 15 seasons, the latest was Green Bay with 9 straight in 2021. It is tied for Tennessee’s longest cowl streak for the reason that franchise moved to Tennessee in 1997 (2007-08). One extra cowl would match its longest streak within the Super Bowl period (9 straight in 1975 as Houston Oilers).

  • Tennessee is 8-2 ATS, the very best mark within the league. It is 6-0 ATS when the road is between +3 and -3.

  • Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS since Week 3, the second-best mark within the NFL in that span behind Tennessee (8-0 ATS).

  • Tennessee is 10-3 ATS with additional relaxation underneath Mike Vrabel (8-1 ATS since 2019).

  • Mike Vrabel is 9-4 outright and ATS as a house underdog.

  • Tennessee is 3-1 outright and 4-0 ATS in its previous 4 video games as an underdog.

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Joe Fortenbaugh likes the Titans probabilities in opposition to the Bengals and suggests to play them on the cash line.


  • Miami has not been not less than an 11-point favourite since Week 1 of 2003, additionally in opposition to Houston (-14). Miami misplaced that sport outright. Miami’s 314 video games with out being not less than an 11-point favourite is the second-longest lively streak within the NFL (Detroit with 425; most just lately in 1996).

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 outright and 6-2 ATS as a house favourite.

  • Houston is 4-1 ATS as not less than a 7-point underdog this season (2-0 ATS as double-digit underdog).

  • Houston is 1-4 ATS in its previous 5 video games.

  • This could be the twenty second straight begin Davis Mills has been an underdog in to start his profession, the fifth-longest streak to start a profession within the Super Bowl period.


  • Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in its previous six video games, 4-0-1 ATS with Taylor Heinicke as starter.

  • Washington is 3-0 ATS as a favourite this season, all as a 1-3-point favourite. Heinicke is 4-0 outright and 3-1 ATS as a favourite in his profession.

  • Washington is 5-1 ATS in opposition to groups with dropping information this season.

  • Atlanta is 7-4 ATS this season. It began 6-0 ATS, went 0-4 ATS in its subsequent 4 video games, then coated final week in opposition to Chicago.


  • The over/underneath is at the moment 35.5. In the previous 10 seasons, solely two video games have had totals beneath 36. In Week 17 of 2019, Minnesota-Chicago closed 35.5 and Baltimore-Pittsburgh closed 35. Both video games went over the overall.

  • Denver video games are 9-1 to the underneath this season, the very best underneath proportion within the league. Denver is the primary workforce to start out 9-1 to the underneath since 2011, when each Miami and Jacksonville did it. Both of these groups began 10-1 to the underneath.

  • Denver is 0-4 ATS as a favourite this season.

  • Carolina is 4-2 ATS underneath Steve Wilks after going 3-16 ATS in its remaining 19 video games underneath Matt Rhule.


  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS on the highway this season. Lamar Jackson is 19-8-2 ATS in his profession on the highway.

  • Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its previous seven video games. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS this season, but it surely ranks sixth in common cowl margin (+3.25).

  • Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in opposition to groups with profitable information this season.

  • Four straight Jacksonville video games have gone underneath the overall. All 5 Jacksonville residence video games have gone underneath the overall this season. Six of Baltimore’s previous seven video games have gone underneath the overall.

  • Each of the previous 3 times Jacksonville was a house underdog, it gained the sport outright (2-0 this season).

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Tyler Fulghum explains why he favors the Jaguars after they face off in opposition to the Ravens in Week 12.


  • Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS on the highway this season, the one workforce undefeated ATS on the highway this season.

  • Los Angeles has coated three straight video games.

  • Kliff Kingsbury is 22-12-1 ATS as an underdog with Arizona (10-4 ATS since begin of final season).


  • Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its previous 5 video games.

  • This is the primary time Seattle has been favored by greater than a area objective this season. Geno Smith has been favored by over a area objective solely twice in his profession (2-0 ATS).

  • Derek Carr is 28-21 ATS as a highway underdog, and 12-7 since 2019.


Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • No reigning Super Bowl champion has ever been a 14-point underdog. Three have been double-digit underdogs. The largest unfold for a reigning champion is 13.5, as 2018 Philadelphia and 1995 San Francisco every had video games as 13.5-point underdogs. Both gained these video games outright.

  • The final time the Rams closed as not less than a 14-point underdog was in 2016 in opposition to Seattle (+15.5) after they nonetheless performed in St. Louis.

  • Kansas City is 2-5 ATS as not less than a 4-point favourite this season.

  • Kansas City is 1-4 ATS at residence this season.

  • Los Angeles is 2-7-1 ATS this season, worst within the NFL. It is the worst 10-game ATS begin by a reigning champion since Green Bay began 1-8-1 ATS in 1997.

  • Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in opposition to groups with profitable information this season.


  • New Orleans is 0-4 ATS on the highway this season.

  • New Orleans is 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season (1-4 ATS in its previous 5 video games).

  • Kyle Shanahan is 4-7-1 ATS as not less than an 8-point favourite.

  • Kyle Shanahan is 8-17-2 ATS as a house favourite.


  • Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS at residence this season. The previous 4 residence video games went over the overall.

  • Green Bay is 12-3 ATS as an underdog underneath Matt LaFleur (7-1 ATS since begin of final season).

  • Green Bay is 12-3 ATS after a loss underneath Matt LaFleur (3-3 ATS this season).

  • Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 ATS and 0-5 outright as an underdog of not less than 7 factors together with playoffs (2-0 ATS in common season).

  • Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its previous three video games.

  • Prime-time unders are 19-13-1 this season (107-79-4 final 4 seasons). “Sunday Night Football” unders are 8-3 this season (37-24-2 over the previous 4 seasons).


  • Indianapolis video games are 9-2 to the underneath this season.

  • Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS as a favourite this season.

  • Mike Tomlin is 46-28-3 ATS as an underdog (3-4-1 ATS this season).

  • Jeff Saturday seeks to hitch Jason Garrett as the one coaches previously 30 seasons to cowl every of their first three profession video games as a head coach after taking up the job midseason (Garrett began 5-0 ATS in 2010 with Dallas).

  • Prime-time unders are 19-13-1 this season (107-79-4 previous 4 seasons).



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